Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Fighting the New World Order: Information Revolution 2009(new clips with dates

The information revolution has begun! This is a set of new clips from 2009 exposing the new world order, Barack Obama, and the fraudulent Federal Reserve system. Watch as great American patriots like Alex Jones, Judge Andrew Napolitano, Jeremy Scahill, Jesse Ventura, Dennis Kucinich, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff and Ron Paul speak truth to power. The information you will see in these clips is still pushed as a minority opinion by the corporate controlled media. You be the judge.

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Glut of $4.5 Trillion Will Haunt Obama’s Dollar: William Pesek

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- It’s not a job Barack Obama signed up for, but it’s his nonetheless: Bond salesman-in-chief.

Such is the lot of a U.S. president overseeing an historic increase in debt issuance. Cartoonists are busily churning out depictions of Obama, who partly nationalized automakers, standing on a car lot hawking Detroit’s clunkers. It’s time to begin picturing Obama shilling bonds few may soon want.

His best customers? Asians, of course. Asia already holds about $4.5 trillion of currency reserves, most of them denominated in U.S. dollars. It’s a product of Asia’s “savings glut,” of which the cash-strapped U.S. remains a major beneficiary. That is, if Asians don’t pull the plug.

The trouble is that the U.S. seems to be taking Asia’s money for granted. That’s a grave mistake for a White House that needs to offload record amounts of debt to fund a $787 billion stimulus package -- not to mention spending plans yet to be announced. Assuming Asia’s perpetual devotion is a mistake.

It’s no coincidence that China is pushing for a new international currency at a time when it wants to diversify its almost $2 trillion of reserves. Such mutterings from Venezuela are one thing. They’re quite another coming from the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, with about $764 billion.

“It would be important for the U.S. not to take its position for granted,” World Bank President Robert Zoellick said last week. “My guess is what you will see over time, just as the euro has developed over time, you may have some other currencies develop as an alternative.”

Prime Time

Not that the yuan is ready for prime time. Besides, say analysts like Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, China’s desire for the yuan to become a global invoicing currency doesn’t outweigh its need to maintain control and help exporters. Ultimately, China’s ambitions are hemmed in by the realities of a currency that still isn’t convertible.

China speaks out of both sides of its mouth on the issue. One day, a top official says China wants an alternative to the dollar. The next, someone like Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei tells reporters that “we hope that as the main reserve currency the U.S. dollar will be stable” and that he’s “not aware” of China pushing to put the subject on the agenda of the Group of Eight’s agenda this week.

The other BRICs nations -- the acronym refers to Brazil, Russia, India and China -- all have made noises about the dollar’s stability. Some more than others, of course, yet their concerns have been well reported.

Replacing the Dollar

Replacing the dollar as a long-term goal is fine. Doing it while the global financial system the dollar anchors is in tatters is ill-advised. Not surprisingly, folks in Washington are worried about a sudden move against the currency.

It hardly seems a coincidence that while Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has called China’s yuan “substantially undervalued,” the International Monetary Fund has toned down criticism over the disconnect from economic fundamentals. The softer rhetoric removes a sticking point between China and the IMF, as Asia’s second-largest economy seeks a larger role at the lender and the fund tries to increase China’s contributions.

Could the quid pro quo be that China avoid pulling the rug out from under the dollar? It’s possible. Still, Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner shouldn’t assume Asia’s continued support. Not with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates near zero and untold waves of fresh debt flowing into uncertain markets. Rumblings about the U.S. losing its triple AAA credit rating have further raised the stakes.

Blame All Around

Granted, Asia deserves some of the blame here. Over the past decade, the region was the site of a currency-reserve arms race. While the clear winner in this game of monetary one- upmanship is China, economies like Taiwan and South Korea are holding more dollars than they would like.

It’s become the world’s biggest Ponzi scheme, really. The dollar isn’t crashing because those invested in it are propping it up and adding to their holdings. After all, the magnitude of Asia’s foreign-exchange holdings means it can’t dump the dollar without shooting its economies in the foot.

Asia should indeed be plotting how to reduce its dollar holdings. Those trillions of dollars would be better used in Asia to pay for better roads, bridges, airports and power grids and improved education and health care.

Until then, the U.S. needs to reassure Asians they won’t suffer massive losses on their dollar holdings. It can start by circulating a credible exit strategy from today’s massive stimulus efforts.

The White House also needs to convince Asia that devaluing the dollar at some point to boost U.S. exports isn’t on the table. Obama and Geithner should plan to increase financial diplomacy efforts, traveling to Asia often.

Asia has a $4.5 trillion dollar decision to make, and it’s up to the U.S. to help the region make the right one. Taking Asia’s money for granted would be a disastrous way to go.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net

Monday, July 6, 2009

US lurching towards ‘debt explosion’ with long-term interest rates on course to double

US lurching towards ‘debt explosion’ with long-term interest rates on course to double

Philip Aldrick
London Telegraph
Monday, July 6, 2009

The US economy is lurching towards crisis with long-term interest rates on course to double, crippling the country’s ability to pay its debts and potentially plunging it into another recession, according to a study by the US’s own central bank.

In a 2003 paper, Thomas Laubach, the US Federal Reserve’s senior economist, calculated the impact on long-term interest rates of rising fiscal deficits and soaring national debt. Applying his assumptions to the recent spike in the US fiscal deficit and national debt, long-term interests rates will double from their current 3.5pc.

The impact would be devastating by making it punitively expensive to finance national borrowings and leading to what Tim Congdon, founder of Lombard Street Research, called a “debt explosion”. Mr Laubach’s study has implications for the UK, too, as public debt is soaring. A US crisis would have implications for the rest of the world, in any case.

Using historical examples for his paper, New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt, Mr Laubach came to the conclusion that “a percentage point increase in the projected deficit-to-GDP ratio raises the 10-year bond rate expected to prevail five years into the future by 20 to 40 basis points, a typical estimate is about 25 basis points”.

The US deficit has blown out from 3pc to 13.5pc in the past year but long-term rates are largely unchanged. Assuming Mr Laubach’s “typical estimate”, long-term rates have to climb 2.5 percentage points.

Full story here.

America’s Effective Unemployment Rate at 18.7%?

America’s Effective Unemployment Rate at 18.7%?


Steve Clemons
The Washington Note
July 2, 2009
Each month, I receive from Leo Hindery an update on “America’s effective unemployment rate” which includes not only the official unemployment figures but other data points showing off-the-books unemployed or underemployed people.

The numbers are staggering and are aggregates of official data. They matter because various Obama administration officials including the President himself started off calling for huge stimulus packages to help generate “jobs, jobs, jobs!”

But now, I have been hearing more and more from senior Obama economic team members about the jobs they hoped for coming at the very tail end of an economic recovery. Others are talking about a GDP recovery — but not a jobs recovery. They are admitting as well that they underestimated the severity of this recession and its impact on unemployment levels.

And all this while Goldman Sachs and other financial houses have seen their balance sheets get cleaned up and bonuses surge.

Hindery writes:

Here is a June 2009 version of the summary that calculates the Effective Unemployment Rate, which is now 18.70%, and the Effective Number of Unemployed, which is now 30,172,000.

There are currently 14,729,000 officially unemployed workers, as just announced. However, this figure does not include the combined 15,443,000 workers either (1) in the “labor force reserve” because they have abandoned their job searches (i.e., 4,278,000) or (2) underemployed because they are “part-time of necessity” (i.e., 8,989,000) or “otherwise marginally attached” (i.e., 2,176,000).

The effective unemployment rate is therefore 18.70%, instead of the official 9.51%.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of workers who are officially unemployed has increased by 7,188,000, while almost twice as many workers - 13,290,000 - have become effectively unemployed. And all the while, we should have been creating around 2,250,000 new jobs (i.e., 18 months times 125,000 jobs per month) just to keep up with population growth.

In June, the number of workers officially unemployed increased 218,000, while the number of workers effectively unemployed actually decreased 35,000.

It’s important to see the entire picture of America’s jobs profile — no matter how unpleasant.

I recognize that credit bubble related recoveries are hard to work out and are usually quite slow — with job growth at the back end. This all makes sense — but with Christina Romer out raising expectations again with giddy talk predicting a V-shaped recovery and given the “jobs, jobs, jobs” mantra of President Obama himself — the gap between the job figures expected and the disappointing economic realities generated may be politically consequential.


Seven More Banks Fail

Oh, the joys of not having to get up with the first ring of the alarm clock! But then, as I laid in bed this morning wondering what to write about, it came to me in a flash: There have been numerous alarming signs and portents in the markets this week, if one knows where to look.

The FDIC announced seven bank failures after the market closed Thursday, which brings the number of banks closed this year to 52. But, if you count the number of branch offices closed this week it’s 30 branches.

Founders Bank
Millennium State Bank of Texas
First National Bank of Danville
Elizabeth State Bank
Rock River Bank
First State Bank of Winchester
John Warner Bank

But what’s even more alarming is that if you look back over the last year of “We’re not in a Depression” bank numbers, you’ll see that the number of banks closed is nominally up to 75, but if you count up branches, the banking system has shuffled ownership of 2,969 branches.

That FDIC seems to be doing a smooth job of it - making depositors whole in each case (so far), one can’t help but wonder what’s the cost of all this to be in the longer term, especially since the real guts of the second leg down in financial markets isn’t expected till this fall.

When will FDIC have to go looking to recharge its coffers?

Meantime, at least the bad news was released after the markets were closed and has an extra day to contemplate what this all means. Answer to that should be apparent to anyone with half a brain (Depression 2.0 may be real and George may not be so crazy after all…).

If you divide the total offices closed (2,969) by 51 weeks (since July 11, 2008 is the IndyMac failure - 51 weeks back) closings have been averaging 58.21 offices per week, although admitted the data is skewed a bit by the WAMU and Downey Savings failures. Still, the count is the count.

Another one of the alarming stories this week to give ’cause to pause’ was the NY Fed Funds Rate which, if you look at the June 30th data, had someone paying 7% for overnight funds. The aberration, first caught on Karl Denninger’s “Market Ticker” site admittedly does leave one asking plenty of questions (Like: Who’d pay 7% for overnight money in this environment if they didn’t have a death-like financial mess to paper over quickly?), one can only pray that it was just someone needing quick cash for the end of Q2. The worst fear is that this is all a set up for the next collapse of the derivatives bubble which will be easily apparent as the Dow goes toward new lows in September, which is what I fear. Not to mention the possible banking and market holidays which could accompany that.

Make a note to self: Finish spreading money around to ’safe’ places. A bit more in the Treasury TIPS paper, a bit less in the Big National Bank - going instead to a couple of local banks which have weathered at least one Depression previously.

A third area where alarming developments are taking place is well-described under the headline “Financial lobby gears up for effort against Obama plan.” While it’s true that the Obama administration is trying to build a credible “Consumer Financial Protection Agency”, it’s more than equally true that the banksters are going to roll out all the big guns and pull out the stops since if this one goes through. it could have a Kondratieff cycle-long impact on the bankster coup - which means it could actually save America from financial interest/bankster domination for another 50-years. Why, who’d want to be shackled with interest rate caps and such when desperation of common folks can be turned into optimized yields on past-due accounts?

You won’t read much about this fight in the MainStreamMedia, however, since the banksters have brought most of the corpgov/ MSM media to heel by simple manipulation ad budgets: “Ya’ll either toe the line, or mother banker will slash advertising on your radio/tv/newspaper chain to zip and then where will you be? Need to roll over a credit line to keep your LBO roll-up together? Lay off on the coverage of interest rate caps, then…” Or some variant of this. never ’spoken”, but that’s how the complex system works when you step back from it a ways.

Ah, the joys of having the best ‘democratic republic’ money can buy.

Related? “Washington Post cancels lobbyist event amid uproar.” You tell me. I’ve filed it under “Cookie jars and fingers.”

But there’s another point of alarm, right there. Groups likewww.firecongress.org are popping up and they make it pretty clear that the world “revolution” which I’ve mentioned prominently ove rthe past year or so are starting to filter into the active area of language.

By the way, don’t forget to check out their poster - which you can print off on a good quality color printer and pass around:

economic crisis   Seven More Banks Fail

Ballots beat bullets any old time.

Along about here, you may be figuring out that the reason the market dropped 223 points in Thursday’s trading is that it’s occurred to more people than just yours truly that there is not much stimulating going on from the over-hyped and over-sold ’stimulus’ bill.

Well, duh.

Nassim Taleb - who wrote the famous book on statistical outlier events The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbableeconomic crisis   Seven More Banks Fail is being quoted by CNBC this morning as saying “The financial system is crashing and action must be taken by the US government to convert debt into equity to produce a more stable environment…”

Nice thought, that. But, in case you haven’t noticed, at the current ‘burn rate’ the only possible outcome for the economy is to have runaway inflation, which is fine from the standpoint of the powers-that-be, since the people who were marginally ready to lose their homes, are in many cases already in default and the homes owned by the bankster class, so when prices start to go wild, they ought to sell like hotcakes and new and much higher rates since the public will be retrained into the borrow and refi industries, which will be retooled to maximize profits once again.

Graceful, ain’t it?

Source Infowars.com